Three-Year-Olds Regain Spotlight on Saturday

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/05/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With last week's cancellation of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, there will be two graded three-year-old prep races this Saturday as that event joins the Gotham Stakes over in New York.

Eight of the 10 earlier Sham combatants will fight it out as Straightomidnight and Viva Macho have been replaced by Marcello and Boulder Creek. Unfortunately, the weather might not cooperate once again, as more rain is in the forecast. In the event Saturday's card gets washed away, the race will be run on Sunday.

Coinciding with the two stakes races, the second batch of 23 three-year-olds were announced earlier in the week for Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Ten horses that were not on the original list now have found themselves as single-betting interests, including a pair entered in Saturday's Sham Stakes - Nextdoorneighbor and Setsuko.

Nextdoorneighbor scored by four lengths in his third career start - his first around two turns - giving trainer Michael Machowsky, who also has Caracortado in his barn, a possible second Kentucky Derby contender.

The son of Lido Palace, who has Beyered in the 80's in all three starts, is coming into the race in top form with four splendid workouts since his maiden victory. On the negative side, his jockey in all three races, Rafael Bejarano, will ride Setsuko so Mike Smith has the mount.

Setsuko also has just one win on his resume (in six lifetime starts) and that was at Hollywood Park, so he is winless in two career attempts on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface. In addition, Setsuko's maiden victory came as the heavy 1-2 favorite. It's obvious the field he beat that day leaves a lot to be desired, especially since Broken Tango, the second-place finisher, ran seventh in Nextdoorneighbor's lone triumph.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if both colts failed to hit the board as there are three other top contenders that should finish in front of the two Pool 2 contestants.

Leading the way is Kettle River, winner of two straight, including a game victory over Hawaiian Springs and The Program on January 6 at 1 1/16-miles.

Trainer Eoin Harty, who has been high on this colt for a long time, might have lucked out with last week's postponement as Kettle River was behind in his training due to illness. With an extra week of preparation, look for the son of Congaree to be in top form in his first stakes appearance.

The Program bounced back after losing to Kettle River to win his next start, an entry level allowance event over 1 1/16-miles at Santa Anita. It was a struggle getting past Indian Firewater but he was able to wear him down by a nose at the wire.

His pedigree suggests he'll like the added distance as his second dam, Far Flying, is a half-sister to both the 1987 champion filly Sacahuista and John's Treasure, who finished right behind Danzig Connection in the 1986 Belmont Stakes. More importantly, he looks to be the lone speed after Straightomidnight's connections opted to run that colt on the turf in the Pasadena Stakes, also on Saturday.

Alphie's Bet, like Setsuko, raced on the turf in his last start, breaking his maiden by almost two lengths. It was an extraordinary performance as the Alexis Barba-trained colt was about 10 wide into the stretch while ripping home a final quarter mile in 22 3/5 seconds - the last eighth in an unbelievable 10 4/5. All that under a hand ride!

His lone stakes appearance was also impressive as he finished second to Caracortado in the California Breeders' Challenge in late December. On the negative side, the removal of Straightomidnight could hinder his ability to close as the early pace will most likely be on the slow side.

Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) The Program; 3) Alphie's Bet.

HEADING EAST TO THE BIG APPLE

The Gotham Stakes could have been a tremendous race if all the horses that were pointed for the $150,000 event actually ventured into New York. Regrettably, both Tiz Chrome and Sidney's Candy decided to pass.

The 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 race still drew a field of 10 with Peppi Knows and Afleet Again, the top two finishers in the Whirlaway Stakes, surprisingly listed at 10-1 and 20-1 on the morning line.

Peppi Knows has four wins in six starts, including that one-length victory over Afleet Again last month. His two losses were also strong efforts, finishing second to Buddy's Saint and third to Noble's Promise.

Purchased for just $6,500, the gelding has been underrated his entire career and should hit the board for the sixth time in nine starts.

Afleet Again also must be respected with two wins, a second and a third in his last five, including a victory over Count Fleet winner Laus Deo and Sam F. Davis runner-up Schoolyard Dreams back on Halloween.

I've Got the Fever, who finished behind Aikenite, Super Saver, Rule and Brake Lights in his first four races, finally found a field he could beat winning by 2 3/4-lengths just two weeks ago - wearing blinkers for the first time. He also received a 90 Beyer figure for his effort, a 20-point rise from his previous race. Nevertheless, it's doubtful he'll be able to duplicate that performance, especially on just 14 days rest.

Wow Wow Wow comes into the Gotham off a win at Oaklawn Park, his second in seven career starts. Prior to that victory, he finished eighth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, a race he was wide throughout. In his previous start (an allowance race at the Fair Grounds), he made a winning move around the turn only to falter through the stretch finishing fifth behind Stay Put.

He's royally bred as his second dam, Bird Cage, is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes and Travers winner, Birdstone. Unfortunately, he drew the far outside post position - number 10 - and will most likely have to race wide once again.

Shrimp Dancer is bred for the turf on both sides but has run on the dirt in three straight races after three over the weeds. The son of Kitten's Joy picked up place money in his last two, failing both times to win as the heavy favorite. This New York State-bred seems up against it in this race.

Two wild cards in the Gotham are Yawanna Twist and Awesome Act.

Trained by Richard Dutrow, Yawanna Twist is undefeated in two starts but stretches out off a pair of six furlong sprints to 1 1/16-miles. His damsire is Oliver's Twist, who ran second in the 1995 Preakness, so there is a chance he could win around two turns.

Awesome Act comes into the Gotham off a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf but that was four months ago. He's also only raced one time on the dirt (Polytrack) finishing third (beaten four lengths) in a five-horse field. The fabulously bred son of Awesome Again (his dam is full sister to Machiavellian and Coupe de Genie) is actually favored on the morning line but with the recent inactivity, it's best to look elsewhere.

The second choice is Three Day Rush, the colt that took the worst of it when Eightyfiveinafifty bolted in the Whirlaway. Still, he failed to run down Peppi Knows and was passed by Afleet Again inside the final eighth of a mile. He'll have to show some speed breaking from the rail so don't expect much through the stretch.

Nacho Friend, who hasn't raced since last July, could have a hard time getting the distance after a pair of sprints last summer, while the final horse, Turf Melody, needs to step it up after a sixth-place finish in the LeComte.

Selections: 1) Wow Wow Wow; 2) Peppi Knows; 3) Afleet Again.

THIS WEEKEND'S SPOT PLAYS

Saturday's best bet is Tom Kitten in the second race at Aqueduct. The three- year-old gelding finished a game third in his last effort over the track on February 20 despite a terrible trip.

Tom Kitten broke slowly from the gate and jockey Fernando Jara didn't help matters any by taking him wide down the backstretch. He also forced the New York State-bred into the seven path at the top of the stretch but the gelding was good enough to battle Midnight Billy for the lead only to wind up third. He's 6-1 on the morning line so go in with both fists.

Also on Saturday, 10 colts and geldings square off in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita. The choice here is the eight-horse Lucky Rave. His two career victories came over Polytrack but he's bred top and bottom for the turf. His lone grass race in North America was a solid third in the Generous Stakes and an even better performance is in the cards in this one as a quick early pace should suit his come-from-behind abilities.

The sixth race on Sunday at Santa Anita also bears watching. It's a maiden special weight event for three-year-old fillies at six furlongs. Eoin Harty trains two of the 11 entered and both could have extraordinary futures. The first, Kayce Ace, is a full brother to Colonel John, while the second, Empress Way, is a half-sister to the late Eight Belles. They may not win this race but their futures could be outstanding if they're anything like their siblings.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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