Casey takes four-shot lead with stellar 63

Golf Betting Lines

01/17/2009 - Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Casey fired a bogey- free, nine-under 63 Saturday to take a four-stroke lead after three rounds of the Abu Dhabi Championship.

Casey completed 54 holes at 19-under-par 197. His three-round total broke Martin Kaymer's record of 199, which the German set last year. Casey, an eight-time winner on the European Tour, collected his last title at this event in 2007.

Kaymer, the defending champion, fired a seven-under 65 to move into second place at 15-under-par 201.

Englishmen Graeme Storm and Anthony Wall are alone in third and fourth. Storm, who shared the lead after the second round, carded a three-under 69 and stands at 14-under-par 202. Wall also shot 69 and is one stroke further back at minus-13.

The tournament is back on track after the second and third rounds were completed Saturday. There was a two-hour delay during the first round that pushed the tournament back.

Casey got off to a quick start with birdies on one and two. After four straight pars, he birdied the par-three seventh at Abu Dhabi Golf Club to move to 13-under.

The Englishman then picked up his third birdie in three days at the par-five eighth. He also birdied the par-five 10th thanks to a 40-foot birdie putt.

"That was the turning point, I think," said Casey, whose drive on 10 was under a tree. "On the second shot, I didn't know where the ball was going to go and I didn't know whether I would break my club."

Casey kept rolling with back-to-back birdies from the par-three 12th. He parred three in a row from the 14th, but closed with a flourish.

The 31-year-old birdied the 17th get to 18-under, then birdied the par-five 18th for the third consecutive day to set the new 54-hole scoring record by two strokes.

"I didn't expect much after (Friday's) 65. It was nice playing with Graeme, who is actually a good friend," stated Casey. "We all got off to a great start. I think it's always enjoyable to shoot 63"

Kaymer opened with six straight pars before making birdie at No. 7. He then eagled the par-five eighth to jump to 11-under.

Around the turn, Kaymer dropped in back-to-back birdie efforts from the 11th and again from the 17th to move into second place.

"I think it's going to be a totally different situation for me," said Kaymer in comparing last year's final round with Sunday's finale. "I was in the lead by six shots last year when I went out on Sunday, and it was a similar situation. It's going to be very new for me."

Peter Hanson fired a six-under 66 to climb into a share of fifth at 12-under- par 204. He was joined there by Louis Oosthuizen (68) and Johan Edfors (69).

Padraig Harrington, the reigning British Open and PGA Championship winner, is part of a group tied for eighth place at minus-11. He stands alongside Oliver Fisher (69), Stephen Gallacher (65) and Danny Willett (68).

Australian Richard Green, who shared the lead with Storm after the second round, stumbled to a four-over 76 that dropped him into a share of 28th at seven-under-par 209.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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