Big step up for three-year-old filly

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/01/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an effort to solidify her position as 2009 Horse of the Year, owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen will enter three-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra in Saturday's $750,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.

"Hal McCormick (co-owner), my family and I, like other fans of horse racing, want to see her tested," said Jackson in announcing that 'Rachel' would run in the Woodward. "If she goes up against older male horses, we'll be better able to get a measure of her greatness."

The filly's connections are taking this rare and exciting route because 'Rachel' will not run in the Breeders' Cup World Championships in November on the synthetic track at Santa Anita Park. Jess Jackson doesn't like the all- weather surfaces, especially after Curlin failed at Santa Anita in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

In the current NTRA Thoroughbred Poll, 'Rachel' remains in first-place over champion mare Zenyatta by 24 points, 208-184. The filly has 19 first-place votes to the mare's two. While various parties are working to bring the two together in a race, so far nothing has materialized.

The move to have 'Rachel' compete against older male horses is not unprecedented. In 1972 Summer Guest became the only three-year-old filly to compete in the Woodward, which was run for the first time in 1954. Summer Guest, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr., finished second to entrymate Key to the Mint. However, she was disqualified and placed third. That was when the Woodward was contested at Belmont Park over 1 1/2 miles.

"It's great to have an opportunity to run her on the stage that is Saratoga, one I think she is deserving of," said Asmussen. "To run her in a race that Curlin was fortunate enough to win last year, we realize what a tall order it is for her. Most likely Saturday, it will take a career effort for her.

"I think she knows she's a star. I think she accepts the pressure that's put on her, and she thrives on it."

Unfortunately, the field the filly will face is not a star filled one. There are some good handicap horses, Whitney Handicap winner Bullsbay, Stephen Foster champ Macho Again and Asiatic Boy who has career earnings of more than $3 million.

In some ways there's nowhere else to go with Rachel Alexandra. She devastated the field by a record 20 1/4-lengths in the Kentucky Oaks, then became the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. She won by 19 1/4-lengths in the Mother Goose Stakes and posted a six-length victory in the $1.25 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

'Rachel' is working on an eight race winning streak, including all seven starts this year. Lifetime she has won 10 of 13 races for nearly $2.5 million.

More interesting, or puzzling, is the fact that this will be the second straight race for 'Rachel' that will not be televised on a major network. The Haskell was not picked up anywhere, other than the racing channels. If the filly has become such a popular figure, then where is the television coverage of her races?

Someone is definitely dropping the ball when it comes to broadcasting these historic thoroughbred races.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.