Around FCS: The Great Escape

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/26/2008 - Villanova, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As Villanova coach Andy Talley took a few moments to compose himself in his office on Saturday night following a stunning 23-19 loss to No. 1-ranked James Madison, he thought back to a 37-24 quarterfinal-round playoff loss to Youngstown State in 1997.

"I thought we were the best team in the country that year," said Talley. "I still remember the crying and the sobbing in that locker room."

Talley remembered that the emotions of that locker room were influenced by "the finality of things," a team that had seen its dreams of a national championship end short of its goal.

The veteran coach, now in his 24th year at Villanova, saw a similar scene in the locker room on Saturday, following a 35-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass from quarterback Rodney Landers to receiver Bosco Williams on the final play of the game that snatched a victory away from the Wildcats in a first-place showdown in the Colonial Athletic Association.

But while his Villanova players witnessed another outpouring of sadness, he found a way to turn his emotions in a more positive direction.

"I can't wait to get going tomorrow," Talley explained. "There is nothing you can do about it. I wish we had knocked the ball down, but we didn't. The great thing for us is we still have hope."

On a day with torrential rain and blustery winds, No. 7 Villanova (5-2 overall, 3-1 in the CAA) was one play away from its second win over a No. 1 team this season when JMU (7-1, 5-0) pulled another miracle finish out of its bag of tricks before a homecoming crowd of 6,721 at Villanova Stadium.

Villanova held the ball for 20 of the 30 minutes of the second half and finally took a 19-14 lead with 14:09 remaining when quarterback Chris Whitney scrambled free to hit Phil Atkinson for a six-yard scoring strike on third and goal.

JMU sliced the lead to 19-17 when Dave Stannard booted a 25-yard field goal just inside the left upright at the 4:08 mark, but the Dukes had to rely on its defense to get the ball back from a Wildcat offense that milked all but 61 seconds off the clock.

After a shanked Joe Marcoux punt gave James Madison the ball back its own 34- yard line, the Dukes struggled to keep their drive alive, with Landers completing a 15-yard pass to tailback Eugene Holloman on 4th-and-10.

Landers (25 carries, 133 yards rushing, 8-of-12, 184 and three TDs passing) scampered 13 yards for another first down and completed an eight-yard pass to Rockeed McCarter to put the ball on the Villanova 30 with three seconds remaining.

A potential game-winning field goal into the stiff head wind from 47 yards out was viewed as too risky by JMU coach Mickey Matthews and a false start penalty moved the ball back five more yards. The only hope left for the Dukes was a Hail Mary pass.

"My biggest thing was just to get the ball off and give our guys a shot," said Landers, who had already been sacked once by Villanova's Tim Kuckuka earlier in the drive. "Basically you hold your breath and hope someone can make a play. Someone upstairs is smiling on us."

Landers lofted a pass towards the right corner to McCarter that appeared it might sail completely out of the end zone. But the ball was deflected by linebacker Osayi Osunde, who tried to knock the ball down with two hands.

Instead, the pass caromed off the helmet of Darrel Young and into the hands of Williams, who was trailing the play. Williams juggled the ball slightly before securing it for a remarkable touchdown.

"It was a shock," said Williams. "I saw the ball come off the defenders. I was just running down the field. I didn't believe it at first and then everyone started jumping around on me."

It was a wild end to a game that lived up its advance billing.

Landers caught the Villanova secondary out of position on play fakes for a 23- yard touchdown pass to Griff Yancey in the first period and a 55-yard scoring aerial to McCarter in the second period as the Dukes claimed a 14-3 lead.

But backed up on its own three-yard line, Villanova began to dominate on the line of scrimmage and put together an 18-play, 97-yard drive that gobbled 8:21 off the first-half clock.

Matt Szcur's 15-yard dash cut JMU's advantage to 14-10 at halftime. Marcoux's second field goal of the game, a 37-yarder into the wind to go with his 42- yarder in the first quarter trimmed the lead to one point after a 15-play, 60- yard march in the third period.

Whitney, playing with a sprained, left (non-throwing) shoulder, rushed 12 times for 65 yards and completed 8-of-11 passes for 48 yards, while Aaron Ball ran 23 times for 108 yards to fuel a Wildcat comeback that set up a classic fourth-quarter finish that left everyone scratching their heads for an explanation.

Matthews said the Dukes work on the Hail Mary play every day at the end of practice and was asked how often it works?

"Not very often," Matthews answered. "It's got to bounce right. You haven't been to Youngstown and Appalachian in the last two years. We've had some bounce against us."

But few coaches understand the disappointment of losing a tough game like Matthews either.

"I'm not sure there was a loser tonight." Matthews explained. "I'm happy for us, I'm thrilled. I've been on the other sideline when we've been stunned like that."

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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