AL West: Lee deal shakes up AL West

Baseball Betting Lines

07/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We know this much is true about the Texas Rangers: on paper, they are a better ballclub than they were before Friday.

When the Rangers traded for Seattle Mariners' ace Cliff Lee, they effectively complemented their potent lineup with a bona fide horse, one who last year proved himself to be more than capable of handling a pressure-packed postseason workload.

Lee comes to a Rangers team that already holds a 4 1/2-game lead in the American League West. Rangers fans are still giddy enough about the acquisition to give Lee a mulligan for his Rangers debut Saturday against Baltimore, when he allowed six earned runs in nine innings. In fact, the whole team could use a mulligan after suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Orioles, owners of the worst record in the American League.

"Good time for a break. We need it," manager Ron Washington said. "Sometimes it's not the best team that wins, it's the team that plays the best."

Indeed, there figures to be plenty of days ahead when Texas will play the role of favorite. And with a few weeks remaining until the July 31 trade deadline, it will be interesting to see the trickle-down effect the Lee deal will have on division rivals Oakland and L.A.

Another thing to keep an eye on during the second half of the season is the budding Triple Crown race between the Rangers' Josh Hamilton and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Those two are tied for the Major League lead in batting average (.346) and are tied for second with 22 home runs apiece, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista with 24. Hamilton put himself into the mix with an insane month of June, when he hit .454 with nine home runs and 31 RBI. Cabrera has the edge with a Major League-best 77 RBI, while Hamilton ranks fourth with 64. But if anybody can produce runs in bunches, it's Hamilton, as he proved in 2008 with a league-high 130 RBI and 331 total bases.

The question is, will he be able to pick up right where he left off coming out of the break?

Another storyline worth watching will be Lee's impact on the rest of the rotation. Texas has already gotten healthy contribution from starters C.J. Wilson (7-5, 3.35) and Colby Lewis (8-5, 3.33). Can they continue to pitch effectively under Lee's shadow? According to Fox Sports Southwest, Lee's debut was the most watched television program in the Dallas-Fort Worth area on Saturday, doubling the team's average Nielsen household rating this season.

Even with a new-look rotation, the offense will continue to garner the most attention. Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero are having tremendous rebound seasons. Ian Kinsler is hitting .310 and is on pace to shatter his career-high in walks despite missing the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain.

Then, there is the pending sale of the team which has been an ongoing soap opera in the Fort Worth area. On Monday, team president Nolan Ryan sued his own ballclub for 'derailing' the deal and asked a bankruptcy judge to approve the sale.

While that drama continues to unfold, the Rangers will open the second half armed with a shiny new toy atop the starting rotation, and looking to build on their division lead.

ANGELS SPUTTER INTO ALL-STAR BREAK

While the first-place Rangers were suffering an improbable sweep to close out the season's unofficial first half, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were doing a nosedive of their own. Rather than seize the opportunity to gain some ground, the Angels flatlined, as they've now lost eight of their last 10.

All told, things could be worse. Prior to that 10-game stretch, the Angels were 3 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West. Now, they are 4 1/2 games back, thanks to the Rangers dropping seven of their last 10. For now, chalk it up to good fortune for the Halos. However, another stretch of that magnitude could very well drop them into a hole too deep to climb out.

This marks the first time since 2006 that L.A. is not in first place at the All-Star break. It's no question the team has missed the presence of first baseman Kendry Morales, who was in the midst of a big season before breaking his leg during a walk-off home run celebration in late-May. Manager Mike Scioscia has confirmed the Angels are looking to add another bat, but not to rent a player for the remainder of the season.

"We know that one person is not going to fill Kendry Morales' shoes and what he brings to the team," Scioscia told the team's website. "He's the one hitter in the middle of our lineup that really makes everyone around him better. I think that speaks volume to his talents. That being said, I think that our offensive lineup -- if people can play to their capabilities -- will be deep enough for us to absorb a lot of that and to give ourselves an opportunity to score runs and support what we think is a good pitching staff."

WHAT NOW FOR THE MARINERS?

When the Seattle Mariners dealt Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers on Friday, general manager Jack Zduriencik all but threw in the towel on the 2010 season. Among the most disappointing teams during the first half of the season, the Mariners have to be at or near the top.

When you look back at the expectations following a flurry of offseason moves, to where Seattle (35-53) is now, 15 games back in the division, it's a sobering reality of just how far the team has strayed from its intended path. And now, the ace is gone, and plenty of questions remain.

At the forefront of those questions is, what exactly did the team get in return for its departed ace?

In addition to receiving three prospects from Texas, the key to the deal was 23-year-old first baseman Justin Smoak, who came through the Rangers' minor league system with such high hopes. But he struggled in his first taste of big league action, hitting .209 in 70 games with the Rangers. Initial reports on Friday had a deal in place for Seattle to land Yankees prized catching prospect Jesus Montero, among others. However, that deal ultimately fell through, and Zduriencik acted quickly on Plan B when the Rangers changed their mind on dealing Smoak.

Still, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is preaching patience with the youngster, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his Seattle debut.

"I keep trying to get people to understand, this kid is just starting his career, really," Wakamatsu said. "To be traded and come over with the expectations and all those things, he's got to work some things out. We've seen him, and I've seen him. He's awfully impressive, but we're going to have to be patient with him."

A'S STILL IN THE HUNT

Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane does not have a reputation for making blockbuster deals at the trade deadline to improve his ballclub. Despite the fact that his team is a manageable 7 1/2 games back of the Rangers, who so far have made the biggest splash of the trading season, the rumor mill has been pin drop-quiet regarding any potential deals involving the A's.

Oakland boasts the AL's third-ranked team ERA (3.85) thanks in part to All- Stars Trevor Cahill (9-3, 2.94) and Andrew Bailey (1.70, 18 SV). That said, if Beane were to make a deal before the trade deadline, at the top of his wish list would have to be one word: power.

The A's rank last in the majors with 57 home runs, and that's even with four home runs in a pair of wins over the Angels this weekend. Prior to blasting three homers against the Angels' Scott Kazmir on Saturday night, Oakland had gone 23 straight games without a multi-homer game.

According to manager Bob Geren, we should be seeing more long balls in the second half, regardless of what Beane does or does not do at the trade deadline.

"I'm trying to think who's below their career norm at this point," Geren told the Oakland Tribune. "(Kurt) Suzuki has 10, so he's pretty much on pace. (Kevin Kouzmanoff) will probably hit more in the second half than he did in the first half (8). Same thing with (Mark) Ellis, and you know Jack (Cust) will, too."

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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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